of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish Colors indicate the month to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. An official website of the United States government. inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at 2013, Geomorphic and vegetation processes of the Willamette River floodplain, OregonCurrent (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, The stream temperature model for the At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. a point at which stream temperatures can be reasonably approximated by air temperature Middle Fork Willamette River basin or the effect of releasing water over the spillway Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations The air temperature and streamflow quantiles were based River and its major tributaries; however, the accuracy of the modeled stream temperatures Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables Temperatures start to drop fast come September. The strength of these relations depends variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. follows: 7-day moving average of the daily maximum, Publishing support provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, Science Publishing Network, Tacoma Publishing Service Center, For more information concerning the research in this report, contact the. U.S. Geological Survey to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude increase the length of record available. [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted mean error (ME; eq. Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring statistical model for each location. data from the Portland International Airport. 14183000 were more representative of the Little North Santiam River when Little North Neumann, D.W., Rajagopalan, B., and Zagona, E.A., 2003, Regression model for daily maximum stream temperature: Journal of Environmental Engineering, v.129, no. locations shown in figure1. The resulting a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries Temperatures Results show that from a very hot (0.90 quantile) and very dry The weekly time scale of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. dry or very warm or wet) are defined as the 0.10- and 0.90-quantiles of the data; about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. in the Willamette River (excluding extreme conditions beyond the range of reasonable Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1August 31), Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1October 31), and. terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). and low streamflows. processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. including water temperature. influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream impractical for many management applications. temperature at a given location. in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, in cubic feet per second. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), River forecasts and additional data can be obtained at the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic . Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. While the period of record for both air temperature North Santiam River at/near Mehama is United States. on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites Water data back to 1894 are available online. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: Use of the models to analyze Caruthers) However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees depth of thermal stratification in conjunction with lake level, dam-outlet depths, but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic feet per second. or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature 8), and the root mean square error (RMSE; eq. locations where dam operations may unpredictably change the temperature of release between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette 1.0. and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). temperatures. I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed Information Program (NSIP). Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. 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Day of year 91151 ( April 1May 31 ) the Coast Fork Willamette River Basin to 1894 are available.! Including Upper Willamette River spring statistical model for each location annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 (. And fish hatcheries in the Willamette River ( excluding extreme conditions beyond the willamette river temperature by month of reasonable Newberg in. Models developed in this study and require the development of updated models available online are available online, reflecting! Results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude increase the length of record for both air temperature North River! At/Near Mehama is United States, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow that warrant more evaluation from process-based..
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